July 2026 Winthrop Poll Results - National Poll

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ROCK HILL, SOUTH CAROLINA – In partnership with YouGov, the Winthrop Poll has released its first national poll on a host of issues.

Residents around the country were asked about the president’s approval rating, the economy, the conflict with Iran, foreign policy, immigration, inflation and affordability, declaring America a Christian nation, whether being a Christian is important to being an American, trust in the institutions of American democracy, mid-decade gerrymandering, and the Jeffrey Epstein files, among other topics. Scroll down to see full results.

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Description of Results
Statement on YouGov Partnership
Sample Size, Margins of Error for Sub-groups
Media Contact
Data Tables with Results
Full Methodology

Description of Results

Nationally, Donald Trump’s Approval [Table 1] ratings hover in the mid 30s. Nearly 7 in 10 Independents Disapprove of how he’s doing his job as president. According to Dr. Scott Huffmon, director of the Winthrop Poll, “We know that approval ratings at this level don’t bode well for the president’s party if they persist into November, but the significant disapproval among Independents points to a potential Democratic strategy. A concerted get out the vote effort aimed at Independents may be the key to Democratic victories across the country. However, since the Independents seem likely not to be voting for Democrats so much as voting against Republicans if they turn out, a standard Democratic get out the vote campaign may not be as effective.”

Respondents were asked whether they approved or disapproved of how Trump was handling the economy, inflation, immigration, the conflict with Iran, and foreign policy, in general. [Table 2] When strongly disapprove and somewhat disapprove are combined, majorities of Americans disapprove of how Trump is handling each of these.

Dr. Huffmon noted, “Among Republicans, a quarter disapprove with his handling of Iran. Certainly, an overwhelming majority approve, but three times as many Republicans disapprove of his handling of Iran versus his handling of immigration. This gets to the heart of understanding some of the different coalitions within the Republican party. The strong America First wing would certainly approve of Trump’s immigration policies. However, they took him at his word when he said he was ‘not going to start a war’ in his 2024 victory speech and seem to be displeased with our war in Iran. Nonetheless, it’s important to keep in mind that, while they may disapprove of his handling of Iran, very few are likely to turn their back on their party. Many of them have other issues on which they continue to support Trump, such as the 91% who approve of how he’s handling immigration.”

There is a clear partisan split on how well respondents rate the economy. [Tables 4-7] Overall, 64% rate it as fairly bad or very bad. However, two-thirds of Republicans rate the economy as very or fairly good as opposed to merely 9% of Democrats. Only 27% of Americans think the economy will be better a year from now. While 59% of Republicans have faith that it will improve, only 12% of Independents and 7% of Democrats share that faith.

Huffmon noted, “Majorities of Americans reported difficulty affording groceries, health care, and housing. If this trend continues into November, Republicans – who control the Senate, House, and White House – will struggle to explain how the economy will quickly turn around if they are reelected.”

Jeffrey Epstein is still in the forefront of most Americans' minds. [Tables 8-12] Sixty-three percent say they have been following the news about the Epstein files. Two-thirds of Americans believe that the government is hiding evidence concerning the case. Half of Americans believe that Trump was involved in Epstein’s crimes, but this is the result of a dramatic partisan split. Only 9% of Republicans believe Trump was involved versus 87% of Democrats.

Huffmon observed, “The Epstein files aren’t going anywhere any time soon. Voters continue to follow what’s going on with the Epstein files despite deep concern about the economy and the distraction of a war. Only one in five Americans believe that everyone involved will be thoroughly investigated. The fact that nearly 60% of the president’s base doesn't believe that justice will be carried out means that this will be one more topic that could weigh the Republicans down in November. With potential voters doubting the government’s commitment to justice in the Epstein case, disapproving of the war in Iran, and struggling to make ends meet, there is little wonder that Republicans started the redistricting wars to try to maintain control of the House.”

The topic of race still deeply divides the parties. While 7 in 10 Democrats believe that too little attention is paid to racial issues today, only 13% of Republicans agree. [Table 13] Contrary to what some might assume, there are no significant differences between those who live in the South versus non-South when it comes to beliefs about too much, too little, or the right amount of attention paid to racial issues.

Huffmon noted, “While a large regional difference in attitudes about attention paid to racial issues didn’t emerge, notable difference showed up when we focused on the white respondents. As political scientist V.O. Key told us in 1949, the politics of the South revolve around the position of African Americans. While pluralities of Americans, whether southern or not, believe too little attention is paid to racial issues, this trend reverses when only whites are examined. The plurality now flips to ‘too much attention.’ The fact that more Americans believe there should be more effort to address racial issues but more whites in America believe that too much attention has already been given to racial matters belies the notion that we are entering a post-racial America as some claim. In fact, with ongoing heated debates over topics such as DEI, we can see that public conflict over racial issues never went away, even if they went underground for a while.”

Nearly four times as many Republicans than Democrats believe the government should declare America to be a Christian nation. [Tables 14-18] More than three times as many Republicans than Democrats believe in America’s religious exceptionalism - that the country holds a special place in God’s plan. Nonetheless, a majority of Republicans believed the government should maintain the separation of church and state even if it was 26 points lower than Democrats. However, there is a 35 point difference between Democrats and Republicans on the topic of whether America’s founding documents were “divinely inspired.”

Huffmon stated, “The very notion of who is considered a true American has become a partisan religious battle. Fifty-six percent of Republicans say that being Christian is an important aspect of being ‘truly American’ as opposed to 17% of Democrats. Article VI of the Constitution forbids any religious tests for office holders, but we appear to be in disagreement as to whether there should be one to simply be American.”

Trust in American democratic values, such as the freedom of the press, free elections, and equality under the law, is also a point of partisan contention. [Tables 19-24]

There is opposition to mid-decade gerrymandering across the board. However, 67% of Democrats oppose it while only 50% of Republicans express clear opposition. [Table 25]

Fewer than 3 in 10 Republicans believe that greater numbers of people of different races, ethnicities, and nationalities make America a better place as opposed to more than 7 in 10 Democrats. [Table 26]

Huffmon added, “In 2026, a fight has broken out in the kitchen over what ingredients should go in the melting pot."

Statement on YouGov Partnership

YouGov, a global research data and analytics group, has been a pioneer and innovator in online polling with consistent cutting edge methodology. In a 2016 blind test by Pew, YouGov was ranked the most accurate online poll. They have also been ranked as the most accurate in polling various global elections as recently as 2025. The core methodology is described at the bottom of the poll results but more general information may be found here: YouGov Methodology .  

With this collaboration, the Winthrop Poll will be able to semi-regularly poll the nation while continuing to poll South Carolina and the South. This will allow the Winthrop Poll to contextualize the opinions of South Carolinians relative to the nation in a consistent manner. The result will be a more nuanced understanding of South Carolina attitudes.

Sample Size, Margins of Error for Sub-groups
For the current Winthrop Poll national survey of 2,150 respondents, the following margins of error are reported at the 95% confidence level.

• Results using all national respondents have a margin of error of +/- 2.11%
• Results using only respondents from the South have a margin of error of +/- 3.58%
• Results using only respondents from the non-South have a margin of error of +/- 2.62%
• Results using only Democrats and Leaners nationally have a margin of error of +/-3.28%
• Results using only Republicans and Leaners nationally have a margin of error of +/-3.47%
• Results using only Independents nationally have a margin of error of +/-4.79%
• Results using only White Respondents nationally have a margin of error of +/-2.65%
• Results using only White Respondents from the South have a margin of error of +/-4.8%

The South is defined as the 11 states of the former confederacy: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia.

The survey was in the field June 18 - 23, 2026

The number of respondents from any single state is too small to report results for that state.

Full methodology in compliance with the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative is at the bottom of this page.

Media Contact
For additional information or to set up an interview with Scott Huffmon, contact Judy Longshaw at longshawj@winthrop.edu or 803/323-2404 (office) or 803/984-0586 (cell).

 

This is the first release of findings from the summer 2026 Winthrop Poll national survey. The following releases will focus on national and southern attitudes on the confederate flag and monuments as well as take a deep dive into political polarization in the country.

 

Data Tables with Results
Numbers may not sum to 100 due to rounding.

Table 1
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President of the United States?

	All	Republicans (including Leaners)	Independents	Democrats (including Leaners)	The Economist National Poll 7/6 for comparison
Approve	34	80	16	3	35
Disapprove	59	12	68	96	61
Not Sure/ Prefer not to answer	7	8	16	2	4

 

Table 2
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling these specific issues?

Jobs and the economy

	All	Republicans (including Leaners)	Independents	Democrats (including Leaners)
Strongly approve	17	42	7	1
Somewhat approve	18	36	11	4
Somewhat disapprove	13	11	20	11
Strongly disapprove	48	7	54	83
Not Sure	5	4	9	2

Inflation and Prices

	All	Republicans (including Leaners)	Independents	Democrats (including Leaners)
Strongly approve	12	29	4	0
Somewhat approve	16	37	8	2
Somewhat disapprove	15	20	17	9
Strongly disapprove	55	12	66	88
Not Sure	3	3	5	1

Immigration

	All	Republicans (including Leaners)	Independents	Democrats (including Leaners)
Strongly approve	30	68	18	2
Somewhat approve	14	23	15	5
Somewhat disapprove	8	4	13	10
Strongly disapprove	45	4	47	82
Not Sure	3	2	6	1

The conflict with Iran

	All	Republicans (including Leaners)	Independents	Democrats (including Leaners)
Strongly approve	17	41	5	1
Somewhat approve	15	31	11	4
Somewhat disapprove	11	13	14	8
Strongly disapprove	51	11	59	85
Not Sure	6	5	11	3

Foreign policy, in general

	All	Republicans (including Leaners)	Independents	Democrats (including Leaners)
Strongly approve	20	48	7	1
Somewhat approve	18	35	14	4
Somewhat disapprove	11	7	17	11
Strongly disapprove	47	5	54	82
Not Sure	5	5	8	3

 

Table 3
Do you approve or disapprove of the U.S. military conducting lethal strikes on boats suspected of containing drugs being smuggled from the Caribbean or the Pacific?

	All	Republicans (including Leaners)	Independents	Democrats (including Leaners)
Strongly approve	26	57	16	3
Somewhat approve	16	25	14	10
Somewhat disapprove	12	8	13	16
Strongly disapprove	36	3	40	64
Not Sure	10	8	17	8

 

Table 4
How would you rate the condition of the economy today?

	All	Republicans (including Leaners)	Independents	Democrats (including Leaners)	SC Gen Pop May 2026
Very good	6	13	4	1	7
Fairly good	26	52	16	8	26
Fairly Bad	34	24	37	42	37
Very bad	30	8	39	46	25
Not Sure	4	4	5	2	6

 

Table 5
Would you say you are better off financially than you were a year ago, not as well off, or in about the same shape financially?

	All	Republicans (including Leaners)	Independents	Democrats (including Leaners)	SC Gen Pop May 2026 MOE +/-2.59%
Better off	18	31	12	10	21
Not as well off	46	26	54	61	48
About the same	36	43	35	30	31

 

Table 6
A year from now, do you expect that economic conditions in the country as a whole will be…

	All	Republicans (including Leaners)	Independents	Democrats (including Leaners)	SC Gen Pop May 2026
Better	27	59	12	7	28
Worse	40	10	51	61	38
About the same	22	24	22	20	23
Don't know	11	7	14	11	11

 

Table 7
How affordable do you find the following?

Grocery costs

	All	Republicans (including Leaners)	Independents	Democrats (including Leaners)	SC Gen Pop May 2026
I find this very easy to afford	5	8	6	2	6
I find this easy to afford	31	43	25	23	22
I find this difficult to afford	38	34	40	42	45
I find this very difficult to afford	22	12	26	29	22
N/A - I do not have to spend on this	1	1	1	2	2
Don't know	2	2	2	2	3

 

Health care costs (e.g., insurance costs, prescription medication)

	All	Republicans (including Leaners)	Independents	Democrats (including Leaners)	SC Gen Pop May 2026
I find this very easy to afford	6	10	6	4	8
I find this easy to afford	22	30	17	17	19
I find this difficult to afford	29	30	27	30	32
I find this very difficult to afford	29	18	34	37	27
N/A - I do not have to spend on this	11	9	12	11	9
Don't know	3	3	4	2	4

 

Housing costs (e.g., rent, mortgages)

	All	Republicans (including Leaners)	Independents	Democrats (including Leaners)	SC Gen Pop May 2026
I find this very easy to afford	5	8	6	2	7
I find this easy to afford	20	27	15	16	18
I find this difficult to afford	30	29	27	32	27
I find this very difficult to afford	28	15	36	35	31
N/A - I do not have to spend on this	15	17	13	13	14
Don't know	3	4	4	3	4

 

Table 8

How closely have you been following news about the Jeffrey Epstein files?

	All	Republicans (including Leaners)	Independents	Democrats (including Leaners)
Very closely	21	14	18	31
Somewhat closely	42	39	37	47
Not too closely	36	46	43	21
Prefer not to answer	2	2	2	1

 

Table 9
Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Trump administration is handling the Jeffrey Epstein files?

	All	Republicans (including Leaners)	Independents	Democrats (including Leaners)
Approve	26	61	12	2
Disapprove	62	24	71	93
Not Sure	12	15	17	6

 

Table10
Do you think the government is covering up evidence it has about Jeffrey Epstein?

	All	Republicans (including Leaners)	Independents	Democrats (including Leaners)
Yes	66	38	77	88
No	13	29	6	3
Not Sure	21	34	16	10

 

Table 11
Do you think that Donald Trump was involved in crimes allegedly committed by Jeffrey Epstein?

	All	Republicans (including Leaners)	Independents	Democrats (including Leaners)
Yes	51	9	58	87
No	30	69	19	2
Not Sure	18	22	23	12

 

Table 12
How confident are you that all people connected with Jeffrey Epstein who are alleged to have committed sex crimes will be thoroughly investigated?

	All	Republicans (including Leaners)	Independents	Democrats (including Leaners)
Very confident	6	9	5	4
Somewhat confident	14	24	10	7
Not very confident	28	33	21	27
Not confident at all	45	26	55	57
Not Sure	8	9	10	5

 

Table 13
In general, do you think there is too much, too little, or about the right amount of attention paid to race and racial issues in our country these days?

	All	Republicans (including Leaners)	Independents	Democrats (including Leaners)
Too much attention	35	64	34	9
Too little attention	43	13	42	70
About the right amount of attention	23	24	24	22

 

How much do you agree or disagree with the following

Table 14
The federal government should declare the United States a Christian nation.

	All	Republicans (including Leaners)	Independents	Democrats (including Leaners)
Strongly disagree	37	9	42	61
Disagree	15	15	19	13
Neither agree nor disagree	20	28	18	14
Agree	12	23	6	6
Strongly agree	13	23	9	5
Not Sure	3	3	6	2

 

Table 15
America holds a special place in God's plan

	All	Republicans (including Leaners)	Independents	Democrats (including Leaners)
Strongly disagree	24	4	30	39
Disagree	9	6	10	11
Neither agree nor disagree	28	26	29	28
Agree	19	30	13	11
Strongly agree	16	28	11	7
Not Sure	5	5	6	4

 

Table 16
It is critical that our government maintains a separation of church and state.

	All	Republicans (including Leaners)	Independents	Democrats (including Leaners)
Strongly disagree	4	6	6	2
Disagree	6	10	3	2
Neither agree nor disagree	17	23	14	10
Agree	27	35	27	20
Strongly agree	44	23	45	64
Not Sure	3	3	6	2

 

Table 17
I consider founding documents, like the Declaration of Independence and the U.S. Constitution, to be divinely inspired.

	All	Republicans (including Leaners)	Independents	Democrats (including Leaners)
Strongly disagree	20	5	23	33
Disagree	14	9	16	18
Neither agree nor disagree	22	22	26	20
Agree	23	33	17	18
Strongly agree	17	29	14	9
Not Sure	4	3	5	3

Table 18
I consider being a Christian an important aspect of being truly American.

	All	Republicans (including Leaners)	Independents	Democrats (including Leaners)
Strongly disagree	33	7	43	52
Disagree	13	10	12	15
Neither agree nor disagree	21	26	22	15
Agree	17	27	11	12
Strongly agree	15	29	10	5
Not Sure	2	1	3	2

 

Table 19
Most people in the U.S. are committed to having a strong democracy regardless of their positions on political issues facing the country.

	All	Republicans (including Leaners)	Independents	Democrats (including Leaners)
Strongly disagree	8	8	9	8
Disagree	18	16	17	20
Neither agree nor disagree	25	28	23	23
Agree	33	34	31	34
Strongly agree	11	11	9	12
Not Sure	5	3	10	4

Table 20
U.S. political leaders are committed to having a strong democracy regardless of their positions on political issues facing the country.

	All	Republicans (including Leaners)	Independents	Democrats (including Leaners)
Strongly disagree	19	12	25	24
Disagree	27	25	23	30
Neither agree nor disagree	26	27	27	23
Agree	17	24	10	13
Strongly agree	7	9	6	6
Not Sure	5	3	9	4

 

Regardless of who is in power, how well do you think each of these institutions or processes is generally working in our democracy?

Table 21
How elections are administered.

	All	Republicans (including Leaners)	Independents	Democrats (including Leaners)
Very well	13	8	10	19
Moderately well	21	21	12	27
Okay	23	25	22	22
Moderately poorly	19	23	20	16
Very poorly	19	20	30	13
Not Sure/Prefer not to answer	5	3	6	4

 

Table 22
Freedom of the Press

	All	Republicans (including Leaners)	Independents	Democrats (including Leaners)
Very well	13	23	9	7
Moderately well	20	26	15	18
Okay	22	21	21	24
Moderately poorly	20	12	23	27
Very poorly	19	14	27	20
Not Sure/Prefer not to answer	5	5	6	4

 

Table 23
Division of power among branches

	All	Republicans (including Leaners)	Independents	Democrats (including Leaners)
Very well	8	11	8	4
Moderately well	16	27	8	12
Okay	22	30	18	18
Moderately poorly	21	14	23	25
Very poorly	26	12	33	37
Not Sure/Prefer not to answer	7	7	10	5

 

Table 24
All people are treated equally under the law

	All	Republicans (including Leaners)	Independents	Democrats (including Leaners)
Very well	8	15	6	3
Moderately well	16	26	12	9
Okay	20	27	12	16
Moderately poorly	21	15	23	26
Very poorly	32	12	43	45
Not Sure/Prefer not to answer	4	4	5	2

 

Table 25
As you may know, the Republican-controlled Texas Legislature decided to engage in a mid-decade redistricting to gain more seats in the 2026 midterm elections. Democratic states like California have redrawn their maps to gain more seats to counter Republicans. Which of the following best reflects your point of view?

	All	Republicans (including Leaners)	Independents	Democrats (including Leaners)
Neither party should be allowed to use mid-decade redistricting to gain an advantage	58	50	56	67
If one party used mid-decade redistricting to gain an advantage, then the other party should do the same	18	18	17	18
If one party uses mid-decade redistricting to gain an advantage, then the other party should not respond in kind because it only makes things worse	4	7	4	2
Not Sure/Prefer not to answer	20	25	24	12

 

Table 26
Overall, do you think having an increasing number of people of many different races, ethnic groups and nationalities makes the U.S. a better place or a worse place to live, or doesn't make much difference either way?

	All	Republicans (including Leaners)	Independents	Democrats (including Leaners)	SC Gen Pop May 2026
Better place	50	29	46	73	46
Worse place	16	30	17	3	15
Doesn't make much difference	26	30	31	19	31
Not sure	8	11	7	5	9

 

 

 

 

Full Methodology 

The Winthrop Poll is a Charter Member of the AAPOR Transparency Initiative. The Scientific Research Group (a division of YouGov) is a signatory to the AAPOR Transparency Initiative. Transparency in research methods is essential to building and maintaining public trust in survey research.
The following are the Transparency Initiative reporting elements

Data collection strategy: Web survey

Who sponsored the research and who conducted it: Winthrop University sponsored the research which was conducted by YouGov.

Measurement tools/instruments: YouGov delivered a comprehensive code book that includes the wordings and response options for all questions included in the survey. Available upon request.

Population under study: United States residents age 18 or older.

Method: Non-probability sampling. Panelists were notified about their eligibility for the survey either through an email or a notification in the YouGov app.

Members of YouGov’s panel were invited to participate in the survey. YouGov’s recruitment process is open to all, and members of the public can join our panel by signing up via the YouGov website or app (both Android & iOS).

For this study, YouGov’s sample matching procedure was used to create two samples of panelists that were representative of their specific collection of states’ education, age, race, and gender.

Respondents were offered 750 points to participate. Respondents can redeem points for gift cards after accruing a fixed amount (depending on their location).

Methods and modes of data collection: All interviews were conducted via self-administered web questionnaire with YouGov’s survey platform.

Dates of data collection: 2026-06-18 - 2026-06-23

Sample size: 2,150. This survey has an estimated design effect of +/- 1.208.

How the data were weighted: YouGov interviewed 832 respondents from 11 southern states and 1552 respondents from the remaining states who were then matched down to samples of 750 and 1400 respectively. The respondents were matched to sampling frames on gender, age, race, and education. The sampling frames were constructed by stratified sampling from the specific state subsamples of the 2023 American Community Survey (ACS) 1-year sample with selection within strata by weighted sampling with replacements (using the person weights on the public use file).

The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frames using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frames were combined and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frames. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, region (only applicable for the non-southern sample), and home ownership. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frames and post-stratified according to these deciles.

The weights were then post-stratified on 2024 presidential vote choice as well as gender, age (4-categories), race (4-categories), and education (4-categories). These two samples were then combined and post stratified to the relative population size within the US of each group in order to produce the final weights.

How the data were processed and procedures to ensure data quality: Panelists eligible for participation in our surveys have been members of the YouGov panel for at least 30 days and have passed a series of quality checks. In addition to the original screening, the survey included a set of items meant to ensure respondents were paying attention. Open-ended questions were reviewed to ensure that respondents were on task as well. Respondents were also evaluated on the basis of the time it took them to complete the survey with those who responded too quickly excluded from the final data. Ultimately, out of the 5686 respondents who started the survey, 134 did not complete the survey, 2272 were screened out for eligibility purposes and 410 were terminated for failing to pass an initial attention check. Of the remaining 2870 complete cases, 486 were removed for data quality reasons. An additional 234 cases were removed in our matching process to result in the final sample size of 2150.

General statement acknowledging limitations of the design and data collection: In addition to sampling error, surveys are subject to other kinds of error. Care should be taken in the interpretation of the results.

Find out more about YouGov's Methodology HERE