Current Findings
December 2018 Winthrop Poll Southern Focus Survey
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE WINTHROP POLL SOUTHERN FOCUS LOGO
ROCK HILL, SOUTH CAROLINA –
Half of residents in 11 Southern states either agree or strongly agree that
America was founded as an explicitly Christian nation, according to the results
in the Winthrop Poll Southern Focus Survey.
This viewpoint, a crux of “Christian
Nationalism,” is particularly prevalent among white evangelicals. Those who
espouse Christian Nationalist beliefs want the United States to be governed as
an explicitly Christian nation (for more explanation of Christian Nationalism,
see: Whitehead, Andrew L., Samuel L. Perry, and Joseph O. Baker. 2018. “Make
America Christian Again: Christian Nationalism and Voting for Donald Trump in
the 2016 Presidential Election.” Sociology
of Religion 79(2):147-171).
In this latest poll, three-fourths of white evangelical
respondents agree or strongly agree with this belief on how the nation was
founded. According to poll director, Dr. Scott Huffmon, “Research has shown
that increases in Christian Nationalist beliefs lead to more exclusionary views
on immigration and more negative views of multi-culturalism in America, those
who hold these views care more about whether they have a strong leader who will
protect their religious and cultural values than whether a leader is individually
pious.”
More than 80% of evangelicals
voted for Trump in 2016. The poll found that 80% of Republican (or Republican
Leaning) Southerners approve of Trump, while only 4% of Democrats do.
Trump has a 44% approval
rating among all respondents and a 48% disapproval rating. This is slightly higher than his national
approval ratings. According to Huffmon, “Trump’s approval is still soaring
among his base in the South and his overall approval ratings in the region
remain slightly higher than his national numbers."
Meanwhile, Congress has a 70% disapproval rating.
The Southern respondents
contacted for this poll reside in: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia,
Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and
Virginia. The sample size does not allow for breakdowns by individual states.
SEE BELOW FOR QUESTIONS AND
RESPONSES
CONFEDERATE MONUMENTS AND
FLAG
As some Southern communities
and universities ponder what to do with monuments that celebrate Civil War era
figures, the Winthrop Poll asked residents what should be done with the statues
that commemorate Confederate soldiers who died during the Civil War.
Forty-two percent of
Southerners said to leave those memorials alone, while 28% said to add a plaque
for context and historical interpretation. Nearly one-fourth want to move the
statutes to a museum. Huffmon notes, “All told, 56% want to do something other
than simply leave the monuments and statues as they are, but these folks are
very divided on what should be done. A strong plurality advocate leaving them
as they are.”
As far as statues honoring
leaders and politicians who supported racial segregation, 30% said to leave the
statues in public spaces. One-fourth said to add a marker, another fourth said
to put them in a museum, while 13% said to remove them. Thirty-seven percent of
black respondents said to put them in a museum, while a fourth said to remove
them.
According to Huffmon, “Statues to avowed segregationists are more
controversial than monuments to the confederate fallen. A much slimmer
plurality advocate leaving them as is while nearly as many would like to add a
marker for historical context or move them to museums. While only 13% wish to
remove them entirely, it is notable that this is more than twice as many people
who want Confederate memorials wholly removed.”
Concerning the Confederate
flag, 46% of Southern residents view it as somewhat or very unfavorable. Only
one in five Southerners view it as very favorable. Breaking down the viewpoints
by race, there were 44% of whites who view the flag as favorable or very
favorable, while 58% of blacks view it as very unfavorable.
This Winthrop Poll sought to
find out what Southerners believe the flag stands for. It is viewed by nearly
half of all respondents as a symbol of Southern pride. Yet 64% of black
respondents view it as a symbol of racial conflict.
CAUSE OF THE CIVIL WAR AND
RACE RELATIONS
Even though the American
Civil War ended in 1865, the causes of the war continue to be debated. A
fourth of all respondents said it was caused by slavery; 21% said states’
rights; and half said both were equal causes. Thirty percent of black
respondents said slavery was the cause, while 58% said both slavery and states’
rights were the cause.
It only follows that race
and race relations continue to be a controversial subject among Americans.
Forty percent of all respondents said race relations are poor in this country,
and another 38 percent called them only fair. A majority of black residents –
59% – said relations are poor, while 35% of white residents agreed.
A majority of residents,
black and white, said race relations are growing worse.
ECONOMY AND OPPORTUNITY
More than half of
Southerners said our country is headed in the wrong direction. This was mostly
a Democratic viewpoint because 57% Republicans surveyed said the country is
moving on the right track. Still, 77% of Southern residents said our country’s
economy as a whole is very good or fairly good and a majority said it is
getting better.
The most important problem
facing our country, according to those surveyed, is immigration, followed by
politicians/government, racism, lack of healthcare and the economy.
Southern Republicans and Democrats are polar opposites in whether all people in
the United States have an equal chance to succeed if they work equally hard.
Nearly three fourths of Republicans agree while three fourths of Democrats did
not agree.
Concerning “political
correctness,” more than two thirds of residents agree or strongly agree that it
threatens our liberty. Political correctness seems to be much more worrisome to
Republicans, as nearly half strongly agreed that it was a threat, while only
14% of Democrats strongly agreed. Overall, however, nearly half of Democrats saw
political correctness as a threat to liberty at some level while an
overwhelming 84% of Republicans responded that they saw it as a threat at some
level.
METHODOLOGY
For this latest Winthrop
Poll, callers surveyed 969 residents in 11 Southern states by landline and cell
phones between Nov. 10-20 and Nov. 26-Dec. 2. See full methodology statement
for a note on the odd array of dates. The Southern states are Alabama, Arkansas,
Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina,
Tennessee, Texas and Virginia. Results which use all respondents have a margin
of error of approximately +/- 3.15 at the 95% confidence level. Subgroups have
higher margins of error. Margins of error are based on weighted sample size.
CLICK HERE FOR FULL METHODOLOGY STATEMENT.
POLL FUNDING AND CONTACT
INFORMATION
The Winthrop Poll is funded
by Winthrop University. For additional information, or to set up an interview
with Poll Director Scott Huffmon, please contact Judy Longshaw at longshawj@winthrop.edu or 803/323-2404
(office) or 803/984-0586 (cell).
Poll Demographics for
December 2018 Winthrop Poll of the South v. Census Data on the South
(Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina,
South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia)
| |
Census
|
December Winthrop Poll
|
18
to 29 years
|
21.5881
|
19.0
|
30
to 44 years
|
24.1393
|
24.5
|
45
to 64 years
|
33.8867
|
34.5
|
65
years and over
|
20.3859
|
22.0
|
| |
|
|
Male
|
48.0769
|
48.0
|
Female
|
51.9231
|
52.0
|
Not
Sure
|
--
|
0.1
|
|
|
|
White
alone
|
73.7545
|
71.7
|
Black
or African American alone
|
20.0113
|
20.1
|
Other
|
6.2342
|
5.9
|
Refused
|
--
|
2.3
|
Cell entries represent percent responding as indicated. Columns
may not sum to 100 due to rounding
Table 1: Do you approve or disapprove of
the way Donald Trump is handling his
job as President of the United States?
|
All
|
GOP (incl Leaners)
|
Democrats (incl Leaners)
|
National Approval 11/25 (while this poll was in the field) from
Gallup
|
Approve
|
44
|
80
|
4
|
38
|
Disapprove
|
48
|
13
|
91
|
60
|
Not Sure
|
6
|
6
|
3
|
|
Refused
|
2
|
2
|
1
|
|
Table 2: Do you approve or disapprove of
the way Congress is handling its
job?
|
All
|
Approve
|
18
|
Disapprove
|
70
|
Not Sure
|
10
|
Refused
|
3
|
Table 3: Thinking about the current path
that our nation is taking, do you think our country is on the right track or headed in
the wrong direction?
|
All
|
GOP (incl Leaners)
|
Democrats (incl Leaners)
|
Right Track
|
35
|
57
|
9
|
Wrong Direction
|
56
|
33
|
87
|
Don't Know/ Refused
|
9
|
10
|
4
|
Table 4: What do you think is the most important problem facing the United States of America today?
TOP FIVE
|
All
|
Immigration
|
13.1
|
Politicians/
Government
|
7.4
|
Racism
|
5.8
|
Healthcare (people not having it)
|
5.5
|
Economy
|
5.2
|
Table 5: How would you rate the condition
of the economy of the country as a whole
these days? Is it very good, fairly good, fairly bad, or very bad?
|
All
|
Very good
|
20
|
Fairly good
|
57
|
Fairly bad
|
15
|
Very bad
|
5
|
Not Sure
|
2
|
Refused
|
1
|
Table 6: Right now, do you think that
economic conditions in the country as a whole
are getting better or getting worse?
|
All
|
Getting Better
|
56
|
Getting Worse
|
33
|
Not Sure [volunteered]
|
9
|
Refused
|
2
|
Table 7: Which of the following comes closest to your opinion about what
to do with monuments or memorials to
Confederate soldiers who died during the Civil War?
[CALLER: Randomize options]
Leave them just as they are.
Leave them, but add a plaque or marker for context and historical interpretation
Move them to a museum
Remove them completely
|
All
|
White
|
Black
|
Leave
|
42
|
47
|
26
|
Leave BUT add marker
|
28
|
31
|
16
|
Museum
|
23
|
17
|
42
|
Remove
|
5
|
3
|
13
|
Not sure/ Don't know
|
2
|
1
|
3
|
Refused
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
Table 8: Which of the following comes closest to your
opinion about what to do with statues
honoring leaders and politicians who SUPPORTED racial segregation?
[CALLER: Randomize options]
Leave them just as they are.
Leave them, but add a plaque or marker for context and historical interpretation
Move them to a museum
Remove them completely
|
All
|
White
|
Black
|
Leave
|
30
|
34
|
18
|
Leave BUT add marker
|
26
|
30
|
16
|
Museum
|
26
|
23
|
37
|
Remove
|
13
|
10
|
25
|
Not Sure/ Don't Know
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
Refused
|
2
|
2
|
3
|
Table 9: Is your view of the Confederate Flag
favorable or unfavorable?
Would you say that is
Very or Somewhat?
[CALLER: if someone asks
“Which Confederate flag,” Respond: “The one commonly referred to as the
Confederate Battle Flag.”]
|
All
|
White
|
Black
|
Very Favorable
|
20
|
24
|
8
|
Somewhat Favorable
|
17
|
20
|
7
|
Somewhat Unfavorable
|
18
|
18
|
15
|
Very Unfavorable
|
28
|
20
|
58
|
Not Sure/ Don't Know
|
14
|
15
|
11
|
Refused
|
4
|
4
|
2
|
Table 10: Do you think the Confederate flag is more a
symbol of racial conflict or of Southern pride?
|
All
|
White
|
Black
|
Racial Conflict
|
38
|
31
|
64
|
Southern Pride
|
47
|
55
|
21
|
Don't Know
|
12
|
11
|
13
|
Refused
|
3
|
3
|
2
|
Table 11: What’s your impression of the main cause of
the Civil War? Was the Civil War mainly about slavery, mainly about states’
rights, or about both equally?
|
All
|
White
|
Black
|
Slavery
|
25
|
23
|
30
|
States' Rights
|
21
|
26
|
8
|
Both Equally
|
49
|
46
|
58
|
Not Sure/ Don't Know
|
4
|
5
|
3
|
Refused
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
Table 12: Now, we’re going to talk about matters of
race and race relations for a bit.
How would you rate race relations in the UNITED STATES today?
Excellent, Good, Only Fair, or Poor
|
All
|
White
|
Black
|
Excellent
|
2
|
2
|
1
|
Good
|
18
|
21
|
8
|
Only Fair
|
38
|
41
|
32
|
Poor
|
41
|
35
|
59
|
Don't Know/ Not sure
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
Refused
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
Table 13: Do you
feel race relations in the UNITED STATES are getting better or getting worse?
|
All
|
White
|
Black
|
Better
|
31
|
36
|
15
|
Worse
|
61
|
56
|
76
|
Not changing// staying
same [volunteered]
|
6
|
6
|
5
|
Refused
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
Table 14: 'Political
correctness' threatens our liberty as Americans to speak our minds.
|
All
|
GOP (incl Leaners)
|
Democrats (incl Leaners)
|
Strongly Agree
|
31
|
47
|
14
|
Agree
|
37
|
37
|
35
|
Neither agree nor disagree
|
5
|
2
|
7
|
Disagree
|
17
|
10
|
29
|
Strongly disagree
|
7
|
2
|
11
|
Don't Know/ Refused
|
3
|
2
|
3
|
Table 15: America was
founded as an explicitly Christian nation.
|
All
|
GOP (incl Leaners)
|
Democrats (incl Leaners)
|
White Evangelicals
|
Strongly Agree
|
18
|
29
|
9
|
34
|
Agree
|
33
|
38
|
29
|
42
|
Neither agree nor disagree
|
8
|
7
|
6
|
4
|
Disagree
|
21
|
18
|
24
|
14
|
Strongly disagree
|
16
|
5
|
28
|
5
|
Don't Know/ Refused
|
4
|
3
|
4
|
1
|
Table 16: Do you believe all people in the
United States do or do not have an equal chance to succeed
if they work equally hard?
|
All
|
GOP (incl Leaners)
|
Democrats (incl Leaners)
|
Do
|
49
|
72
|
22
|
Do NOT
|
47
|
25
|
74
|
Not Sure [volunteered]
|
3
|
2
|
4
|
Refused
|
1
|
0
|
--
|
For methodological questions please read the full Methodology Statement
See full methodology page for more info.
Contact Information:
Judy Longshaw
803/323-2402 (office)
803/984-0586 (cell)
The Winthrop Poll is paid for by Winthrop University.
For additional information, or to set up an interview with Dr. Scott Huffmon, please contact Judy Longshaw at longshawj@winthrop.edu or 803/323-2404.
Note: Winthrop University, located in Rock Hill, S.C., is a nationally recognized public university offering graduate and undergraduate degrees to an inclusive, international student body.