Winthrop University: Winthrop Poll - Current Findings
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Winthrop Poll
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Rock Hill, SC 29733, USA
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Current Findings

Results of Winthrop Poll released on October 1, 2019 with emphasis on 2020 SC Democratic Presidential Primary.

South Carolina Democratic voters strongly support Joe Biden to be the Democratic nominee to become the 46th president, according to the latest Winthrop Poll.

Thirty-seven percent of those surveyed said they were leaning toward voting for the former vice president. Of the African American Democratic and Democratic leaning voters contacted, he had even higher numbers, at 46%. 

Other candidates planning to run in the S.C. primary with support were U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, 17%, followed by U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, 8%, and U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris, 7%. The remaining 15 candidates fell under 5%.

South Carolina is important in the presidential process because it is the first primary in the South and because it is the first time presidential candidates can be vetted by large numbers of African-American voters.

Winthrop Poll Director Scott Huffmon noted that "African Americans constitute one of the most important constituencies for the Democratic Party. African Americans can make up more than 60% of the Democratic Presidential Primary vote in South Carolina, which is a much larger portion than in the Iowa Caucus or New Hampshire primary."

Only a third of those surveyed by the Winthrop Poll said they were sure of their choice. A little more than half of all respondents said they might change their mind.

The Democratic and Democratic leaning poll respondents overwhelmingly (93%) said they disapprove of the way Trump is handling his job as president. Those S.C. voters who identify as Republican or lean that way have the opposite opinion: 72% approve of Trump.

More than half of white Democratic voters in S.C. said that beating Trump was more important than picking a candidate who shared their positions on major issues, while only 35% said beating Trump was important.

These results represent the responses of 462 Democratic and Democratic Leaning Registered Voters and 406 Republican and Republican Leaning Registered Voters. Results that use all Democratic and Democratic Leaning respondents have a margin of error of +/- 4.6% at the 95% confidence level. Results that use all Republican and Republican Leaning respondents have a margin of error of +/- 4.9% at the 95% confidence level.

Calls were made between 9/21-9/30, 2019.

Full methodology here: https://www.winthrop.edu/winthroppoll/current-poll-methodology.aspx

NOTE: Cell entries represent percentages. Columns may not sum to 100 due to rounding.
T1: Demographics of Democratic & Democratic Leaning Registered Voters in SC from this poll
(Note: The South Carolina Election Commission codes race as “white” and “non-white.”)


Male

39

Female

60

Not Sure

2

White

36

Non-white

64

18-24

4

25-44

33

44-65

39

65+

22

Refused

3

T2: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President of the United States?

 

Democratic & Dem Leaning Registered Voters

GOP & GOP Leaning Registered Voters

Approve

4

72

Disapprove

93

16

Not Sure

2

9

Refused

2

3

T3: I'm going to read a list of people who are running in the Democratic primaries for president in 2020. After I read all of the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in 2020, or if you would support someone else. Please let me finish reading all of the names before you answer
[Order of candidates’ names randomized by computer]
Which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in 2020 in the South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary?


Democratic & Democratic Leaning Registered Voters

Candidate

All

Black

White

Joe Biden

37

46

22

Elizabeth Warren

17

9

29

Bernie Sanders

8

8

7

Kamala Harris

7

10

5

Pete Buttigieg

4

--

10

Cory Booker

3

4

4

Tom Steyer

2

2

2

Andrew Yang

2

--

3

Beto O’Rourke

2

2

1

Tulsi Gabbard

1

1

3

Amy Klobuchar

1

--

3

Julian Castro

1

--

1

John Delaney

0

0

--

Joe Sestak

0

0

--

Michael Bennet

0

--

1

Steve Bullock

--

--

--

Wayne Messam

--

--

--

Tim Ryan

--

--

--

Marianne Williamson

--

--

--

Someone Else

1

1

1

None/No One

3

3

3

No Opinion

12

13

8

T4: Are you very sure about voting for that candidate; or might you change your mind before the primary election?


Democratic & Democratic Leaning Registered Voters
 

All

Black

White

Very sure

34

41

26

Might change mind

52

44

64

Don’t Know

8

9

5

Refused

6

6

5

T5: Which is more important to you personally: That the Democratic Party nominate a presidential candidate ….
[Answers rotated]
With a strong chance of beating Donald Trump
OR
Who shares your positions on major issues


Democratic & Democratic Leaning Registered Voters
 

All

Black

White

Beat Trump

42

35

54

Shares views

32

38

22

Both equally

22

23

23

DK/Refused

4

5

1

T6: As a way to make up for the harm caused by slavery and other forms of racial discrimination, do you think the United States should or should not pay reparations, that is, should or should not pay money to African Americans who are descendants of slaves?


Democratic & Democratic Leaning Registered Voters

GOP & GOP Leaning Registered Voters

 

All

Black

White

All

Should

53

69

33

10

Should NOT

28

19

45

78

DK/Not Sure

15

10

19

9

Refused

4

2

3

4

T7: Which of the following comes closest to your opinion about what to do with monuments or memorials to Confederate soldiers who died during the Civil War?
[Answers read in random order]


Democratic & Democratic Leaning Registered Voters

GOP & GOP Leaning Registered Voters

 

All

Black

White

All

Leave them just as they are

15

16

14

57

Leave them, but add a plaque or marker for context and historical interpretation

23

20

31

26

Move them to a museum

46

50

39

10

Remove them completely

12

9

13

3

DK/Refused

5

5

3

4

T8: Sex & Age Crosstabs
(crosstabs with sex by race/age would have sample sizes too small for useful comparison)


Democratic & Democratic Leaning Registered Voters

Candidate

All

Female

Male

Under 50

50+

Joe Biden

37

38

35

28

43

Elizabeth Warren

17

15

17

18

16

Bernie Sanders

8

6

10

9

7

Kamala Harris

7

7

6

10

6

Pete Buttigieg

4

3

7

6

3

Cory Booker

3

4

2

4

3

Tom Steyer

2

3

1

2

3

Andrew Yang

2

1

4

4

--

Beto O’Rourke

2

2

2

4

0

Tulsi Gabbard

1

1

2

3

0

Amy Klobuchar

1

1

--

0

1

Julian Castro

1

0

1

0

0

John Delaney

0

0

--

--

0

Joe Sestak

0

0

--

--

0

Michael Bennet

0

0

--

--

0

Steve Bullock

--

--

--

--

--

Wayne Messam

--

--

--

--

--

Tim Ryan

--

--

--

--

--

Marianne Williamson

--

--

--

--

--

Someone Else

1

1

--

1

1

None/No One

2

2

2

2

2

No Opinion

12

13

11

10

12

 

T9: Are you very sure about voting for that candidate; or might you change your mind before the primary election?


Democratic & Democratic Leaning Registered Voters

 

All

Female

Male

Under 50

50+

Very sure

34

34

36

35

35

Might change mind

52

52

50

54

52

Don’t Know

8

8

9

7

7

Refused

6

6

5

5

6

 

T10: Which is more important to you personally: That the Democratic Party nominate a presidential candidate ….
[Answers rotated]
With a strong chance of beating Donald Trump
OR
Who shares your positions on major issues


Democratic & Democratic Leaning Registered Voters

 

All

Female

Male

Under 50

50+

Beat Trump

42

37

51

36

49

Shares views

32

32

30

40

25

Both equally

22

26

16

24

19

DK/Refused

4

5

3

--

7

Last Updated: 10/2/19