ROCK HILL, SOUTH CAROLINA – Former President Trump may face some competition in South Carolina for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.
Half of S.C. Republicans who are registered to vote think former S.C. Governor Nikki Haley should run for president in 2024, according to the latest Winthrop Poll.
The poll results were gathered by telephone calls and online before the midterm elections on November 8.
Speculation has already started about who will challenge President Joe Biden in two years to become the nation’s leader.
Respondents were asked who they would support if both Nikki Haley and former President Donald Trump ran for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2024. More S.C. Republican registered voters picked Trump (45%). Thirty-seven percent picked Haley, 10% picked “someone else,” and 8% were not sure.
Winthrop Poll Director, Dr. Scott Huffmon, stated, “Haley has a strong showing against the former president, who is popular within his party. Since this was conducted before the disappointing midterm results, for which many Republicans blame Trump, her star may have risen even further.”
As for the 2020 presidential election, only one-fourth of Republicans believe the results were fair and accurate, while 85% of Democrats agreed with the results.
The abortion issue brought out many voters around the country last week due to the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in June to overturn Roe v. Wade, the federal case that allowed legal abortion. Each state is determining how to proceed, causing some Southern states to ban most abortions while abortion advocates are suing to block enforcement of laws that restrict the procedure.
Here in South Carolina, 86% of all respondents said a woman should be able to obtain a legal abortion if the pregnancy threatens her life or health. That percentage climbed to 92% for Democrats, and dipped to 80% for Republicans.
If the pregnancy was the result of a rape, 82% of respondents also said the woman should be able to obtain a legal abortion. Republican support was 75% in this situation, while Democratic support was 91%.
Support for legal abortion fell if the baby was likely to be born with severe disabilities or health problems with 63% of all respondents indicating a woman should be able to obtain a legal abortion in these instances. Eighty-one percent of Democrats voiced support in this case while less than half of Republicans agreed.
When asked if a woman should be able to obtain a legal abortion for any reason, the support dropped to 46% of all respondents; only a fourth of Republican voters and almost three-fourths of Democratic voters.
According to Huffmon, “The majority of South Carolinians believe in the ability to get a legal abortion at least under some circumstances. There doesn’t seem to be much support for additional restrictions.”
Here are more views on current topics by S.C. voters:
More than three-fourths of S.C. voters are in favor of medical marijuana but support drops to half when asked about recreational marijuana. Republicans are less likely to support the legalization of marijuana than Democrats. Huffmon notes, “Support for medical marijuana has been growing in South Carolina with sizeable majorities from both parties favoring it. While a bit more than half showed support for legalizing recreational marijuana, there was a sharp partisan divide.”
Half of respondents said they favor legalizing gambling on sports in the Palmetto state. Sixty percent of Democrats favored this, while only 40% of Republicans supported the idea.
Only one-third of respondents thought the newly drawn Congressional districts based on the 2020 Census were redrawn in a fair manner. About 40% of Democrats said they weren’t, while around one-third of all respondents didn’t know.
Half of white respondents said the Confederate battle flag is a symbol of Southern pride. Conversely, 63% of Black respondents felt the flag was a symbol of racial conflict and only 11% stated it represented Southern pride.
More than half of all participants said same-sex marriages should be recognized by law as valid. Half of Republicans disagreed. Huffmon stated, “With the Dobbs decision putting abortion back onto the states, some worry that the same might happen to the decision that legalized same-sex marriage nationwide. While more than half of the South Carolina population support the continued legality of same-sex marriage, support among Republicans drops below 40% in this GOP-dominated state.”
What to do with Confederate monuments and memorials continues to be problematic and shows the racial divide in South Carolina. Only a third of all respondents said to leave the memorials to Confederate soldiers who died during the Civil War just as they are. Around 30% said to add a marker for context, while one-fourth of all respondents said to move them to a museum. More than 40% of Black respondents said to move them to a museum.
Race, gender and religious reactions
The Winthrop Poll sought to find out how much discrimination there is against different groups in our society. Here is a sampling of the findings:
Black people – 70% of white respondents said there is some or a lot of discrimination toward Black people while 94% of Black respondents said some or a lot.
Hispanics – 72% of all respondents said this group faces some or a lot of discrimination; 57% of white respondents said some or a lot and 86% of Black respondents said some or a lot.
White people – 44% of all respondents said some or a lot; 48% of white respondents said some or a lot and 32% of Black respondents said none at all.
Asian people – 68% of all respondents said some or a lot; 63% of white respondents said some or a lot and 78% of Black respondents said some or a lot.
Gays and Lesbians – 78% of all respondents said some or a lot; 68% of Republicans said some or a lot and 91% of Democrats said some or a lot.
Women – 65% of all respondents said some or a lot; 55% of men said some or a lot and 73% of women said some or a lot.
Men – 37% of all respondents said some or a lot; 42% of men said some or a lot and 32% of women said some or a lot.
Jews – 61% of all respondents said some or a lot; 51% of Republicans said some or a lot and 76% of Democrats said some or a lot.
Muslims – 75% of all respondents said some or a lot; 65% of Republicans said some or a lot and 85% of Democrats said some or a lot.
Christians – 53% of all respondents said some or a lot; 62% of Republicans said some or a lot and 43% of Democrats said some or a lot.
Conservatives and Liberals – Republicans were more likely to say conservatives face a lot or some discrimination than were Democrats, while Democrats were more likely to say liberals face a lot or some discrimination than were Republicans.
Three-fourths of white respondents said they have not been discriminated against in the past year based on their race, while nearly half of Black respondents said they were.
Separation of Church and State
The Winthrop Poll explored religion’s role in government. Nearly 70% said it was critical for our government to maintain a separation of church and state.
Half of all respondents said the federal government should not declare the United States a Christian nation, yet a third said it should.
The idea that the United States holds a special place in God’s plan figures into many Southerners’ thinking, with 46% agreeing with that statement. Nearly half of respondents consider the founding documents, such as the Declaration of Independence and the U.S. Constitution, to be divinely inspired. More than a third of respondents said they consider being a Christian an important aspect of being truly American. Dr. Huffmon noted, “While not a majority, Christian Nationalism, which blends identities of being an American and being a Christian, appears to have a strong base in South Carolina.”
For additional information, or to set up an interview with Poll Director, Dr. Scott Huffmon, please contact Judy Longshaw at longshawj@winthrop.edu or 803/323-2404 (office) or 803/984-0586 (cell).
For more information on the methodology of and funding for this poll, read our methodology statement.
RESULTS MAY NOT SUM TO 100 DUE TO ROUNDING
Demographics:
|
Census |
November 2022 Winthrop Poll |
|
|
Male |
47.9759 |
47.2 |
|
Female |
52.0241 |
51.7 |
|
Other/Ref |
-- |
1.1 |
|
|
||
|
White |
65.955 |
64.5 |
|
Black |
25.262 |
25.0 |
|
Other |
8.783 |
8.5 |
|
Refused |
-- |
2.0 |
|
|
||
|
18-24 |
11.4038 |
12.0 |
|
25-44 |
32.2448 |
32.8 |
|
45-64 |
32.628 |
32.4 |
|
65+ |
23.7234 |
22.7 |
TABLE 1: In the past year, do you feel that you have been discriminated against because of your race or ethnicity?
|
|
All Respondents |
White Respondents |
Black Respondents |
|
Yes |
30 |
21 |
47 |
|
No |
65 |
75 |
46 |
|
Not sure/Refused |
5 |
4 |
7 |
TABLE 2: In the past year, has there been a time when you felt that you could not express your political opinions out of fear of being verbally attacked or harassed?
|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Yes |
47 |
52 |
36 |
|
No |
50 |
46 |
63 |
|
Not sure/Refused |
3 |
2 |
2 |
TABLE 3: Would you favor or oppose a law legalizing medical marijuana prescribed by a doctor?
|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Favor |
78 |
71 |
82 |
|
Oppose |
15 |
22 |
12 |
|
Not sure/Refused |
7 |
8 |
6 |
TABLE 4: Would you favor or oppose a law legalizing the recreational use of marijuana?
|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Favor |
54 |
39 |
67 |
|
Oppose |
37 |
54 |
26 |
|
Not sure/Refused |
10 |
7 |
8 |
TABLE 5: Would you favor or oppose a law legalizing gambling on sports in the state of South Carolina?
|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Favor |
50 |
40 |
60 |
|
Oppose |
37 |
50 |
31 |
|
Not sure/Refused |
14 |
10 |
10 |
TABLE 6: Which of the following comes closest to your opinion about what to do with monuments or memorials to Confederate soldiers who died during the Civil War?
|
|
All Respondents |
White Respondents |
Black Respondents |
|
Leave them just as they are |
35 |
42 |
16 |
|
Leave them, but add a plaque or marker for context and historical interpretation |
28 |
33 |
16 |
|
Move them to a museum |
25 |
19 |
42 |
|
Remove them completely |
8 |
5 |
18 |
|
Not sure/Refused |
4 |
2 |
8 |
TABLE 7: Some people say the confederate flag reminds them of white supremacy and racial conflict.
Other people say the confederate battle flag is a symbol of southern heritage and
pride.
Do you think the flag is more a symbol of racial conflict or of southern pride?
|
|
All Respondents |
White Respondents |
Black Respondents |
|
Racial Conflict |
37 |
27 |
63 |
|
Southern Pride |
39 |
52 |
11 |
|
Equally Both |
14 |
13 |
15 |
|
Not sure/Refused |
10 |
8 |
12 |
TABLE 8: Do you believe that the results of the 2020 Presidential election were fair and accurate?
|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Yes |
52 |
25 |
85 |
|
No |
34 |
62 |
7 |
|
Not sure/Refused |
14 |
13 |
8 |
TABLE 9: Should a woman be able to obtain a legal abortion if the pregnancy threatens the woman's life or health?
|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Yes |
86 |
80 |
92 |
|
No |
7 |
13 |
4 |
|
Not sure/Refused |
8 |
8 |
4 |
TABLE 10: Should a woman be able to obtain a legal abortion if the pregnancy is the result of rape?
|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Yes |
82 |
75 |
91 |
|
No |
12 |
19 |
5 |
|
Not sure/Refused |
7 |
6 |
4 |
TABLE 11: Should a woman be able to obtain a legal abortion if the baby is likely to be born with severe disabilities or health problems?
|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Yes |
63 |
48 |
81 |
|
No |
24 |
40 |
10 |
|
Not sure/Refused |
13 |
12 |
9 |
TABLE 12: Should a woman be able to obtain a legal abortion for any reason whatsoever?
|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Yes |
46 |
23 |
72 |
|
No |
43 |
69 |
18 |
|
Not sure/Refused |
11 |
8 |
10 |
TABLE 13: Do you think marriages between same-sex couples should or should not be recognized by the law as valid, with the same rights as a marriage between a man and a woman?
|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Yes, should be recognized as valid |
56 |
37 |
69 |
|
No, should not be recognized as valid |
35 |
54 |
23 |
|
Not sure/Refused |
10 |
9 |
8 |
TABLE 14: Do you think Nikki Haley should run for president in 2024?
[for this table the margin of error is +/- 5%]
|
|
Republicans who are registered to vote |
|
Yes |
51 |
|
No |
33 |
|
Not sure/Refused |
16 |
TABLE 15: If both Nikki Haley and Donald Trump ran for the Republican Nomination for President in 2024, would you support Nikki Haley, Donald Trump, or someone else who might run?
[for this table the margin of error is +/- 5%]
|
|
Republicans who are registered to vote |
|
Nikki Haley |
37 |
|
Donald Trump |
45 |
|
Someone else |
10 |
|
Not sure/Refused |
8 |
For the next few questions, please tell us how much discrimination there is against each of these groups in our society today.
TABLE 16: Black people
|
|
All Respondents |
White Respondents |
Black Respondents |
|
A lot |
42 |
29 |
76 |
|
Some |
34 |
41 |
18 |
|
Only a little |
16 |
21 |
3 |
|
None at all |
5 |
7 |
1 |
|
Refused |
3 |
2 |
3 |
TABLE 17: Hispanics
|
|
All Respondents |
White Respondents |
Black Respondents |
|
A lot |
32 |
23 |
54 |
|
Some |
40 |
44 |
32 |
|
Only a little |
18 |
22 |
7 |
|
None at all |
7 |
8 |
3 |
|
Refused |
4 |
3 |
4 |
TABLE 18: White people
|
|
All Respondents |
White Respondents |
Black Respondents |
|
A lot |
13 |
13 |
11 |
|
Some |
31 |
35 |
21 |
|
Only a little |
32 |
32 |
33 |
|
None at all |
22 |
18 |
32 |
|
Refused |
3 |
2 |
3 |
TABLE 19: Asian people
|
|
All Respondents |
White Respondents |
Black Respondents |
|
A lot |
24 |
18 |
35 |
|
Some |
44 |
45 |
43 |
|
Only a little |
21 |
24 |
14 |
|
None at all |
8 |
10 |
4 |
|
Refused |
4 |
3 |
4 |
TABLE 20: Gays and Lesbians
|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
A lot |
42 |
24 |
63 |
|
Some |
36 |
44 |
28 |
|
Only a little |
13 |
21 |
4 |
|
None at all |
5 |
9 |
3 |
|
Refused |
4 |
3 |
2 |
TABLE 21: Women
|
|
All Respondents |
Men |
Women |
|
A lot |
26 |
19 |
32 |
|
Some |
39 |
36 |
41 |
|
Only a little |
21 |
27 |
15 |
|
None at all |
12 |
16 |
8 |
|
Refused |
3 |
2 |
3 |
TABLE 22: Men
|
|
All Respondents |
Men |
Women |
|
A lot |
11 |
13 |
9 |
|
Some |
26 |
29 |
23 |
|
Only a little |
31 |
31 |
32 |
|
None at all |
29 |
25 |
33 |
|
Refused |
3 |
2 |
3 |
TABLE 23: Jews
|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
A lot |
22 |
12 |
38 |
|
Some |
39 |
39 |
38 |
|
Only a little |
22 |
29 |
14 |
|
None at all |
13 |
16 |
6 |
|
Refused |
5 |
4 |
3 |
TABLE 24: Muslims
|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
A lot |
40 |
24 |
59 |
|
Some |
35 |
41 |
26 |
|
Only a little |
14 |
22 |
9 |
|
None at all |
6 |
9 |
3 |
|
Refused |
5 |
4 |
4 |
TABLE 25: Christians
|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
A lot |
17 |
23 |
13 |
|
Some |
36 |
39 |
30 |
|
Only a little |
24 |
24 |
28 |
|
None at all |
19 |
12 |
27 |
|
Refused |
3 |
1 |
3 |
TABLE 26: Conservatives
|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
A lot |
23 |
36 |
12 |
|
Some |
34 |
35 |
33 |
|
Only a little |
23 |
17 |
27 |
|
None at all |
15 |
8 |
23 |
|
Refused |
6 |
4 |
6 |
TABLE 27: Liberals
|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
A lot |
17 |
11 |
22 |
|
Some |
37 |
35 |
40 |
|
Only a little |
24 |
30 |
21 |
|
None at all |
16 |
21 |
12 |
|
Refused |
5 |
2 |
6 |
For these next questions, we want you to tell us whether you strongly disagree, disagree, are undecided, agree, or strongly agree with each statement.
TABLE 28: The federal government should declare the United States a Christian nation.
|
|
All Respondents |
|
Strongly Disagree |
29 |
|
Disagree |
24 |
|
Undecided |
14 |
|
Agree |
16 |
|
Strongly Agree |
15 |
|
Refused |
2 |
TABLE 29: America holds a special place in God’s plan.
|
|
All Respondents |
|
Strongly Disagree |
17 |
|
Disagree |
15 |
|
Undecided |
19 |
|
Agree |
27 |
|
Strongly Agree |
19 |
|
Refused |
4 |
TABLE 30: It is critical that our government maintains a separation of church and state.
|
|
All Respondents |
|
Strongly Disagree |
5 |
|
Disagree |
10 |
|
Undecided |
14 |
|
Agree |
30 |
|
Strongly Agree |
39 |
|
Refused |
3 |
TABLE 31: I consider founding documents, like the Declaration of Independence and the US Constitution, to be divinely inspired.
|
|
All Respondents |
|
Strongly Disagree |
14 |
|
Disagree |
19 |
|
Undecided |
18 |
|
Agree |
28 |
|
Strongly Agree |
18 |
|
Refused |
3 |
TABLE 32: I consider being a Christian an important aspect of being truly American.
|
|
All Respondents |
|
Strongly Disagree |
21 |
|
Disagree |
26 |
|
Undecided |
13 |
|
Agree |
21 |
|
Strongly Agree |
16 |
|
Refused |
3 |
TABLE 33: As you may know, after every Census, electoral districts are redesigned in order to reflect any changes in the population. This happens for all Congressional districts as well as districts for State House and State Senate.
2022 will be the first election using the newly drawn districts from the 2020 Census. Do you believe the electoral districts in South Carolina were redrawn in a fair manner?
|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Yes |
31 |
39 |
30 |
|
No |
27 |
17 |
41 |
|
Don’t know |
39 |
43 |
26 |
|
Refused |
3 |
1 |
3 |
