Poll November 2016 - Likely Voters in VIRGINIA
ROCK HILL, SOUTH
CAROLINA – With the Nov. 8 election approaching quickly, likely
voters in Virginia support Hillary Clinton to become the 45th president,
according to the latest Winthrop Poll. Forty-four percent of
those surveyed said they were leaning toward voting for the former Secretary of
State. Republican nominee Donald Trump followed with 39% of support, while
third-party candidates garnered single-digit support.
The presidential race
has fluctuated with several unprecedented happenings this year. Winthrop Poll
Director, Dr. Scott Huffmon, notes, “With several negative ‘October surprises’
coming out and affecting both candidates, we have seen a tightening of the race
in national polls. However, while Clinton’s lead in Virginia has shrunk from
its highest point, she still leads Donald Trump in the Commonwealth.”
The poll shows a significant divide between partisans in Virginia. According to
Huffmon, “Deep divisions emerge between Democratic and Republican likely voters
in Virginia. Huge differences in the job approval numbers for Obama and
McAuliffe, the favorability ratings for Trump, Clinton, and McAuliffe, and
attitudes about Muslim immigration reveal a gulf between partisan attitudes and
starkly different views of the nation and state.”
For this latest Winthrop
Poll, callers surveyed 712 likely voters in Virginia by landline and cell
phones between October 23 and October 30, 2016. Results which use all
respondents have a margin of error of approximately +/- 3.6% at the 95%
confidence level. Subgroups have higher margins of error. Information about the poll methodology can be found here.
Likely voters also shared how they would describe these three politicians:
Clinton, 83% of Democrats said favorable, only 6% of Republicans gave her that
Trump, 68% of Republicans rated him favorable , 96% of Democrats said
Governor Terry McAuliffe, 76% of Democrats said favorable, 66% of Republicans
to Dr. Huffmon, “Virginia voters don’t have a particularly favorable view of
either Trump or Clinton. While Clinton’s favorability with her base is stronger
than Trump’s, Republicans aren’t likely to cross party lines to vote for
someone who 93% of them view unfavorably.”
PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA
AND GOVERNOR MCAULIFFE
President Barack Obama’s approval rating in Virginia is at 52%. The
two-term president’s ratings are split along party lines – Democratic leaning
voters give him a 95% approval rating, while Republican-leaning voters
disapprove of him at an 89% rate.
Governor McAuliffe’s approval rating stands at 44% while 42% of all
respondents disapproved of the job he is doing as governor. Three out of four
Democratic leaning voters approve of McAuliffe, now in his second year of
office. Republicans think differently: only 14% approve of him, while 73% do
Nearly 60% of the Virginia likely voters said the country is headed in the
wrong direction. Republicans have a bleak view – 95% reported a negative
impression. Poll respondents all together cited the economy, 15.3%; politicians/government,
10.9%; racism, 8.4%; jobs/unemployment, 7.1%; and terrorism, 5.2%, as the most
pressing problems for the country. Still, 48% said the country’s economy is
either very or fairly good.
Sixty-one percent said
the Old Dominion’s economy was either very or fairly good. As for the most
important problems facing the state, the economy, 14.6%; education, 11.7%;
jobs/unemployment, 10.5%; politicians/government, 6.3%; and
roads/bridges/infrastructure, 6%, was cited.
When asked about their personal financial situation, 60% of all respondents
said their finances were excellent or good.
DRUGS, AMENDMENTS AND MUSLIM
IMMIGRATIONThree out of five likely
Virginia voters feel that marijuana should be legalized for medical purposes.
They are more cautious though about the drug for recreational uses: 45% said to
legalize it, while 48% opposed it.
As for prescription
drugs such as pain medications, sleep aids, treatment for ADHD, etc., likely
voters overwhelmingly (69%) felt like there was abuse of pills in their area.
“Prescription drug abuse is a growing national concern and Virginia is no
different. Likely voters see this as a real problem.”
In addition to the
presidential election, Virginia voters will see two constitutional amendments
on their ballots. One amendment would put provisions of Virginia’s
right-to-work law into the state constitution. Half of the poll respondents
said they oppose the amendment because it would make it illegal for workplaces
to require labor union membership for employment. A second proposed
constitutional amendment on the Virginia ballot is meant to aid the families of
first responders killed in the line of duty. It would allow local governments
to exempt a surviving spouse’s property from taxation, a move that 82% of
likely voters said they would support.
Immigration is another
area where major differences between the nation’s two parties surface.
Sixty-four percent of Democrats said that they strongly believe that the United
States should not restrict immigration of Muslims to this country. On the
Republican side, 54% said the nation strongly should, while 14% said the nation
According to Huffmon,
“Trump made a ban on Muslim immigration a key talking point of his campaign.
This is clearly something that splits the parties in Virginia, but while a
majority of Republicans favor the ban, the sentiment is not universal with more
than 1 in 5 saying they oppose such a ban.”
Meanwhile, half of the
Republican respondents said they approve of the Tea Party movement. About one
quarter of both Democrats and Republicans said they were not familiar enough
with the movement to comment. Only six percent of all likely voters said they
consider themselves part of the movement.
METHODOLOGY AND CONTACT INFORMATION
The Winthrop Poll is
paid for by Winthrop University with additional support from The West Forum on
Politics and Policy at Winthrop University. For additional information, or to
set up an interview with Poll Director Scott Huffmon, please contact Judy
Longshaw at email@example.com or 803/323-2404 (office)
or 803/984-0586 (cell).
November 2016 Winthrop Poll
– Likely voters in Virginia
T1 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President of the United States?
Democrats (including “Leaners”)
Republicans (including “Leaners”)
T2 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Terry McAuliffe (Mac-CULL-uff) is handling his job as Governor of
T3 If the election for United States President were held today,
who would you vote for if the candidates were:
Names were rotated]
Hillary Clinton, the Democratic
Donald Trump, the Republican
Gary Johnson, the Libertarian
Jill Stein, the Green Party
Evan McMullin, an Independent
T4 If the election for United States President were held today,
who would you vote for if the only candidates were:
[NOTE: Names were rotated]
Donald Trump, the Republican Candidate
Would Not Vote [volunteered]
T5 Thinking about the current path that our nation is taking, do you think our
country is on the right track or headed in the wrong direction?
Don't Know/ Refused
T6 Thinking about the current path that the state of Virginia is taking, do you think Virginia is on the right track or headed in the wrong direction?
T7 What do you think is the most important problem facing the United
States of America today? [Top 5 responses]
T8 What do you think is the most
important problem facing the state of Virginia today? [Top 5 responses]
T9 How would you rate the condition of the economy of the country as a whole these days? Is it very
good, fairly good, fairly bad, or very bad?
T10 How would you rate the condition of the economy of Virginia these days? Is it very good, fairly
good, fairly bad, or very bad?
T11 How would you rate your
financial situation today? As excellent, good, only fair, or poor?
I’m going to read you a list of names of people or things. For each person or thing, please tell me
whether you have a generally favorable or generally unfavorable view of
them. If you are familiar with them, but
undecided – or if you are unfamiliar with them – you can tell me that as well.
the following three names were randomized]
T12 Hillary Clinton
T13 Donald Trump
T14 Terry McAuliffe
T15 Do you feel that marijuana should,
or should NOT, be legalized for medical purposes?
T16 Do you feel that marijuana should,
or should NOT, be legalized for recreational purposes?
T17 Do you feel that the abuse of prescription
drugs (such as pain medications, sleep aids, treatment for ADHD, et cetera)
is, or is NOT, currently a problem in the
area where you live?
T18 Do you support or oppose an amendment to the Virginia
Constitution that would make it illegal for workplaces to require labor union
membership for employees?
T19 Do you support or oppose an amendment
to the Virginia Constitution that would provide certain property tax
exemptions to surviving spouses of any law-enforcement officer, firefighter,
search and rescue personnel, or emergency medical services personnel killed in
the line of duty?
T20 Do you think the United States SHOULD or Should NOT restrict immigration of Muslim immigrants? Do you feel that way STRONGLY or SOMEWHAT?
Somewhat Should NOT
Strongly Should NOT
T21 In general, would you say you approve or disapprove of the Tea Party movement or are you not familiar
enough with the Tea Party movement to have an opinion?
T22 Would you consider yourself a MEMBER of the Tea Party Movement?
Leanersas Partisans(This is how party breakdowns are reported above)
Washington Post/ Schar School Poll for
Comparison (Leaners as Independents)
T24 Would you say that your support for that candidate is
solid, or that you might change your mind?
Might Change Mind
For methodological questions please read the full Methodology Statement
Contact Information: Judy Longshaw803/323-2402 (office) 803/984-0586 (cell)
The Winthrop Poll is paid for by Winthrop University with additional support from The West Forum on Politics and Policy at Winthrop University.
For additional information, or to set up an interview with Dr. Scott Huffmon, please contact Judy Longshaw at firstname.lastname@example.org or 803/323-2404.
Note: Winthrop University, located in Rock Hill, S.C., is a nationally recognized public university offering graduate and undergraduate degrees to an inclusive, international student body.